This prediction, which if it comes to pass would represent a significant decline on the 451 currently listed by investbio, was made by Steven Burrill, CEO of Burrill & Company as part of his tips for 2009.
Part of this reduction will be accounted for by biotechs with similar therapeutic focuses merging. However, Burrill warns that while this may ensure survival the overlaps in capabilities mean “it will not be a 1+1=2 (combination) or 1+1=3 (synergy) but a 1+1=0.5."
Other companies will be acquired by big pharma and biotech, with Burrill predicting that prices will be equivalent to those in 1990. Burrill believes that the financial straightjacket imposed on small biotechs presents big companies with “the luxury of sitting back and waiting for the right opportunity”.
With regards to big companies in big deals Burrill predicts that the Roche – Genentech saga will reach a successful conclusion, with the Swiss pharma giant finally completing the acquisition.
Burrill concluded with the statement: “Overall, it will be a very tough year for the industry. Companies will be restructuring and refocusing as they try to come to terms with the sea change, both for the buy side and the sell side of Wall Street. By year end we will see a very different industry than exists today.”
The complete list, as well as an assessment the accuracy of Burrill’s predictions for 2008, can be found here .



